Tuesday, December 17, 2019

Mental models and making decisions you dont regret

Mental models and making decisions you dont regretMental models and making decisions you dont regretWhat makes a good decision? When I ask people that question, I often get answers likeWhen the outcome is successful.Why is it that we, as a society, romanticize outcomes? Only things and people that succeed are celebrated. Just look at all the articles and books that idolize successful people. And to a degree, thats obvious.But its also misleading. We tend to overlook cases that didnotcome with a successful outcome. And when wedolook at failure, we are often quick to explain why things failed.In hindsight,we can all look at mistakes and say that it was imminent. But if preventing mistakes is that easy, why are we still make decisions that we regret?Take the case of the Titanic. Looking back, we all know that the luxury liner that traveled from Southampton to New York made many costly mistakes.For example, it is well known that the Titanic didnt carry enough lifeboats.What happens when all the lifeboats are used in case of an emergency? is something that someone surely said, right? We just dont know We werentthere.How about another interesting fact? The Titanic was tested for6 hoursand never with a full crew. After that, they loaded up the passengers and set sail towards New York.Shouldnt we try this thing out mora before we bring passengers on board? someone surely said. I guess not.But heres the thing. No onewantedthe Titanic disaster to happen. And no one predicted it Untilafterthe fact.A few decades before all those innocent people died, Fyodor Dostoevsky famously saidEverything seems stupid when it fails.Bad decisions and good decisionsIts easy to look at success and attribute it to good decision making. But heres the thing- that statement is also true the other way around.Failure is not always explained by bad decision making. However, thats what most historians do. But like Dostoevsky said,in hindsight failure is always obvious.The people who were responsi ble for the Titanic probably thought they were making the right decisions at the time. After the fact, they probably regretted many things.But I dont think good or bad decisions have anything to do with the outcome. Peter Bevelin, the author ofSeeking Wisdom, puts it wellGood decisions can lead to bad outcomes and vice versa.The truth is You cant predict the future. Sometimes even bad decisions can lead to good outcomes.So thats why I think its pointless when people pretend they can teach you how to make good decisions. Theres no such thing. Any person whos failed a lot in life will tell you that.Mental models Focus on the process, not the outcomeThe way you look at how something works in the real world is called amental model. Its your thinking framework aboutsomething.But when we make decisions, we often dont think about our framework and immediately jump to a discussion about potential outcomes.We ask, What will happen if we make this decision?Thats an incomprehensive method beca use youre not questioning your decision-making process. Youre only looking at the outcome.But have you considered what specific thinking frameworks (mental models) you can use for your decision?Too often, we skip the process and jump right to deciding. Maybe thats due to a lack of time, resources, or knowledge - it doesnt matter.Whatever your reason is, its never an excuse to skip the decision-making process altogether. Because thats the only way to become a bad decision maker - regardless of the outcome.So instead of focusing on how successful your choices are, focus on how comprehensive your decision-making process is.Look, you dont have to know everything about mental models - I certainly dont. Most pseudo-intellectuals spend more timetalkingabout what a mental model is instead of using them to achieve anything meaningful in life. They just like todefinemental models.But as you and I both know, knowledge without application is useless.Thats why I recommend reading only the fol lowing 3 books that focus on this topicSeeking Wisdom by Peter Bevelin - Discusses the mental models of Charlie Munger and Warren Buffett.Fooled By Randomness by Nassim Taleb - One of my favorite mental models. Helps with understanding how random events influence outcomes.Nudge by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein - Explains how our decisions are influenced by different factors.We can never predict the future, nor can we know all mental models that exist. But wecanmake decisions we dont regret.By simply focusing on the thinking process, we can always say we did the right thing. And thats the only sure way to avoid regret- no matter what the outcome is.Whats the right thing?Its clear we should never regret making mistakes. Every mistake is a lesson after all. However, theres another type of regret that literally kills people. Its the regret of inaction.Ive seen this up close with my grandmother. At the end of her life, she drowned in her own sorrow. And that sorrow was solely made up from regret about the things she never did.Look, no matter what you do, we all suffer in life. But theres a difference in suffering, as Jim Rohn once saidWe must all suffer one of two things the pain of discipline or the pain of regret or disappointment.Achieving your goals. Improving yourself and your relationships. Writing a book. Building a business. Its painful. It takes a lot of time, energy, and sacrifice to achieve things that are worthwhile in life.But you know whats also painful? The regret of inaction, disappointment, and laziness.Which type of suffering hurts more? Its up to you to decide.Thanks for readingI also wrote a book on this topic. Its called THINK STRAIGHT.Check it out if you want to learn more about controlling your thoughts.Thisarticlefirst appeared onDarius Foroux.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.